The Canadian housing market will see activity moderate over the next two years, according to the latest forecast from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
The federal housing organization is predicting a flattening of sales and prices in 2019, with the average national home sale price coming in somewhere between $501,400 and $521,600.
“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” writes Bob Dugan, chief economist of the CMHC, in a statement.
Dugan notes that home resale numbers in 2019 and 2020 will remain below recent peaks, while prices should moderate to fit lower income, job and population growth numbers.
The organization’s forecast varies from region to region. It predicts that BC will see a “flatter growth profile” over the next two years, as economic and population growth slows. Metro Vancouver’s resale market is expected to see lower sales numbers and higher inventory levels, providing some relief to the famously pricey market.
Meanwhile, the Ontario market is expected to make a “partial recovery” in 2019, as buyers re-enter the job market on the back of expected job growth and strong migration numbers.
“With balanced conditions prevailing in the GTA, we expect moderate sales growth and home prices growing in line with inflation over the forecast horizon,” writes Dugan.
He adds that new home development should add supply to the market, giving buyers more choice, at least when it comes to high density housing.
But while Toronto and Vancouver may have cooler activity levels in their futures, the notably hot Montreal market is expected to continue to post strong sales numbers in the new year.
“Demand [in the city] will be supported by rising net migration over the forecast horizon,” writes Dugan.